USDA GLOBAL CORN AND SOYBEAN FORECAST FOR 2024-25

Maize:

World maize production for the 2024/25 season is forecast at 1,219.4 million tonnes (Mt), down 0.8% from the 2023/24 season, last estimated at 1,229.1 Mt.

The United States will produce 384.6 Mt, down 1.3% from the previous season (389.7 Mt).

China’s harvest will increase by 1.1% to 292.0 Mt.

The European Union will see a 4.3% decline to 58.8 Mt.

Ukraine, with 26.2 Mt, will see a 19.4% decline from the 32.5 Mt harvested in the previous season.

Brazil’s output will reach 127 Mt, up 4.1% from the 2023/24 crop year (122 Mt).

Argentina’s harvest will be around 51 Mt, up 2.0% from the previous season.

World corn exports are expected to decline by 3.0%, from 195.6 Mt to 189.8 Mt in the new season.

The United States will lead exports with 59.1 Mt, up 1.4% from the previous season. Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine follow with 48, 36 and 23 Mt, respectively.

China is expected to reduce its corn import demand by 31.6% to 16 Mt in the new season.

The European Union will import 19.0 Mt, down 2.6% from 2023/24 (19.5 Mt).

Global ending stocks are expected to decline by 3.2% to 304.1 Mt.

US stocks will increase by 10.1%, while Brazil and Ukraine stocks will decline by 51.4% and 56.8%, respectively.

Soybeans:

Global soybean production for the 2024/25 season is expected to increase by 7.8% from the previous season, from 394.7 to 425.4 Mt.

Estimates for South American crops indicate a 10.5% increase for Brazil to 169 Mt, while Argentina is estimated to increase by 5.8% to 51.0 Mt.

Paraguay is expected to increase production by 1.8% from the 2023/24 season (11.0 Mt), with a crop of 11.2 Mt.

The US harvest is estimated at 121.4 Mt, up 7.2% from the previous season (113.3 Mt).

Brazil will lead exports with 105.0 Mt, up 1.3% from 2023/24, while the United States will export 49.7 Mt, up 7.7% from the previous season (46.1 Mt).

Argentina is expected to export 4.5 Mt, down 12.0% from the previous season (5.1 Mt).

China will import 109 Mt, down 2.7% from the previous season (112.0 Mt).

Global ending soybean stocks are expected to rise 17.2% to 131.7 Mt, supported by rising stocks in the United States, Brazil and Argentina.

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